A Data-Driven Wordle Strategy (With the Numbers to Back It Up)

Everyone has a favourite Wordle opener, and most people defend theirs with feelings rather than facts. So we went to the data. Using the 2,315 words on Wordle's original answer list and the 12,972 words it accepts as guesses, we measured which letters show up most, where they sit, and how much each starting word cuts down the list of possible answers.

How we measured it

For each candidate opening word, we compared it against every possible answer and recorded the colour pattern Wordle would show. Answers that produce the same pattern can't be told apart after that guess, so they form a group. A good opener splits the 2,315 answers into many small groups; a poor one leaves a few huge groups.

The figure we report is the expected number of answers remaining after your first guess, averaged over all possible answers. Lower is better. We also report how many distinct colour patterns the word can produce, since more patterns usually means more information.

Which letters matter most

Share of the 2,315 answers that contain each letter at least once:

At the other end, J (27 answers), Q (29), Z (35) and X (37) are rare. Spending an early guess on them is almost always wasted.

Position matters too

Letters aren't spread evenly across the five slots:

• First letter: S starts 366 answers, far more than any other letter. C (198), B (173), T (149) and P (142) follow.
• Last letter: E ends 424 answers and Y ends 364. T (253) and R (212) are next.

Notice that S is common at the start but less common overall than you might expect. That's because the answer list contains almost no plurals ending in S; Wordle's editors chose "real" five-letter words rather than four-letter words plus an S. A guess with S in the last position is usually a poor bet.

The best starting words, by the numbers

Here's how some popular openers compare. "Expected remaining" is the average number of answers still possible after the first guess.

Two things jump out. First, the top openers all use the same five or six letters: R, A, E, S, T, I, O. Second, there's a trade-off between average performance and the number of patterns. TRACE and CRATE produce the most distinct patterns, which makes them excellent at splitting the field into many small groups, while RAISE has the lowest average among words that can actually be the answer.

Why ADIEU and AUDIO disappoint

"Burn four vowels on the first guess" is popular advice, and it feels clever. The numbers disagree. Vowels are common, so learning that a word contains an A or an E tells you less than you'd think; almost half the answers contain E anyway. Meanwhile, the opener spends no letters on the common consonants (R, T, L, S, N) that actually separate one word from another. AUDIO leaves an average of 184 candidates, three times as many as RAISE.

A simple strategy for guesses two to six

Guess two: cover new ground

Unless your first guess turned up several greens, use the second guess to test five new common letters. RAISE followed by CLOUT or COUNT checks ten of the most useful letters in two moves. It's tempting to play a word that fits everything you know, but early on, information beats hope.

Guess three: start fitting the constraints

By now the list is usually small. Play words that respect your greens and yellows. If you have a yellow letter, put it in a new position each time. That way the yellow keeps telling you something instead of wasting a tile.

Watch for double letters

749 answers (32%) contain at least one repeated letter: SPEED, ALLOY, GEESE, TRUSS. If you've got four greens and nothing fits, a double is often the reason.

Beware the "_IGHT" trap

Some patterns have many answers. Nine answers end in -IGHT (EIGHT, FIGHT, LIGHT, MIGHT, NIGHT, RIGHT, SIGHT, TIGHT, WIGHT), and endings like -ATCH and -OUND are similar. If you land in one with guesses to spare, play a word that tests several candidate first letters at once instead of trying them one by one. FLOWN, for example, checks F, L, W and N in a single move.

What hard mode changes

In hard mode, every revealed hint must be used in later guesses. That rules out the "five fresh letters" second guess, so your opener matters even more. Openers with the lowest expected remaining (RAISE, ARISE, IRATE) are a safe choice, and you should be especially careful with pattern traps like _IGHT, where hard mode can force you into guessing one letter at a time.

Putting the numbers to work

The best Wordle openers are built from E, A, R and two or three of T, S, I, O, L and N. RAISE, ARISE and IRATE combine low expected remaining candidates with a chance of an instant win, while TRACE, CRATE and SLATE produce the widest spread of patterns. Whichever you choose, follow it with fresh common letters, move yellows around, and remember that one answer in three has a double letter. Do that and three- and four-guess solves should become the norm.

For more ideas, browse the best Wordle starting words or the full list of five-letter words.